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Central Bank Decisions Next Week

EMERGING MARKETS
  • TURKEY: The CBRT is widely expected to keep its one-week repo rate unchanged at 50% on Tuesday, and instead continue to focus on alternative liquidity draining tools to manage financial conditions. Governor Karahan has repeatedly stated that further steps will be taken to reduce excess lira liquidity in a bid to prevent deposit rates from falling – which could compromise the Bank’s tight stance on monetary policy. Among sell-side, the scope for rate cuts in the remainder of 2024 appears limited.
  • INDONESIA: Bank Indonesia announces its decision on Wednesday August 21 and is expected to leave rates at 6.25%. Its focus will remain on FX stability to maintain rupiah appreciation seen since the end of July. USDIDR is now under 15800 and the central bank won't want to risk the gains by easing ahead of the Fed. The US is widely expected to begin its easing cycle at its September 18 meeting. Inflation remains well within the BI's target band and growth is solid at around 5% y/y. BI has been supporting the economy through its macroprudential policy.
  • THAILAND: The Bank of Thailand's decision is on Wednesday August 21 and it is expected to leave rates at 2.5%. Governor Sethaput has reiterated that current rates and CPI target are "appropriate" as there is little deflationary risk. He was also confident that the central bank's growth forecast would be achieved. So, there is little reason at this point to change rates. BoT has also been monitoring FX and Fed developments but the baht has appreciated since early July against the dollar and blips from recent political events have been unwound.
  • South Korea: The Bank of Korea meets next week at an interesting juncture in Asia. With markets pricing in a cut for September by the Federal Reserve, Asian Central banks are now in focus as to their next move. In a game of ‘who goes first’ the Philippines BSP cut rates this week citing confidence in declining inflation. For the BOK inflation data has surprised to the upside with CPI exceeding expectations.
    • Ongoing house price rises in Seoul continue to be highlighted by the Central Bank as a key risk. We therefore anticipate that the BOK will remain on hold at their next meeting but may soften their language, paving the way for a cut later in the year.
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