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LATAM: Central Bank Decisions Week Ahead

LATAM
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market News
  • Chile (Tues): The central bank of Chile is widely expected to pause its easing cycle, holding the key rate at 5.0%, amid rising near-term inflation pressures. Last month, the Board noted that latest inflation figures had exceeded the central bank’s forecasts, pointing to a possible pause in January and a slower pace of rate cuts beyond that. However, weak internal demand means the central bank is still expected to keep the door open to further gradual easing towards neutral over the coming months.
  • Brazil (Weds): The BCB looks set to deliver another 100bp Selic rate hike to 13.25% on Wednesday, consistent with its forward guidance, which has indicated that it would raise rates by 100bp at each of the next two meetings. Although BRL has rallied this month, inflation expectations have continued to increase and fiscal pressures remain elevated, pointing to the need to move further into contractionary territory.
  • Colombia (Fri): With activity remaining weak, BanRep is expected to cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 9.25% on Friday. However, finance minister Guevara recently suggested that the central bank could pause its rate-cutting cycle this month, and elevated inflation pressures, a larger-than-expected minimum wage hike and ongoing fiscal risks, suggest that the debate could be between another 25bp cut and no change, rather than whether to accelerate back to 50bp.
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  • Chile (Tues): The central bank of Chile is widely expected to pause its easing cycle, holding the key rate at 5.0%, amid rising near-term inflation pressures. Last month, the Board noted that latest inflation figures had exceeded the central bank’s forecasts, pointing to a possible pause in January and a slower pace of rate cuts beyond that. However, weak internal demand means the central bank is still expected to keep the door open to further gradual easing towards neutral over the coming months.
  • Brazil (Weds): The BCB looks set to deliver another 100bp Selic rate hike to 13.25% on Wednesday, consistent with its forward guidance, which has indicated that it would raise rates by 100bp at each of the next two meetings. Although BRL has rallied this month, inflation expectations have continued to increase and fiscal pressures remain elevated, pointing to the need to move further into contractionary territory.
  • Colombia (Fri): With activity remaining weak, BanRep is expected to cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 9.25% on Friday. However, finance minister Guevara recently suggested that the central bank could pause its rate-cutting cycle this month, and elevated inflation pressures, a larger-than-expected minimum wage hike and ongoing fiscal risks, suggest that the debate could be between another 25bp cut and no change, rather than whether to accelerate back to 50bp.