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PHILIPPINES: Central Bank Leaves Rates Unchanged.

PHILIPPINES
  • The BSP cut rates at its final meeting of the year in line with market expectations.
  • The BSP has moderately raised its 2025 risk-adjusted inflation forecast to +3.4% (from +3.3%), with 2026 maintained at +3.7% y/y.
  • The BSP comments suggest concerns as to upside potential for inflation, most notably from geo-political events such as a tariff war.
  • For the first time in recent meetings the BSP noted concerns the impact of a weak Peso on inflation (having declined 5% in recent months).
  • According to the MIPR function on BBG, there are significant cuts priced into the Philippines bond market.
  • As the FED pivots this week, creating doubt as to the path for interest rates globally, the risk for investors next year is the re-pricing of interest expectations. 
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  • The BSP cut rates at its final meeting of the year in line with market expectations.
  • The BSP has moderately raised its 2025 risk-adjusted inflation forecast to +3.4% (from +3.3%), with 2026 maintained at +3.7% y/y.
  • The BSP comments suggest concerns as to upside potential for inflation, most notably from geo-political events such as a tariff war.
  • For the first time in recent meetings the BSP noted concerns the impact of a weak Peso on inflation (having declined 5% in recent months).
  • According to the MIPR function on BBG, there are significant cuts priced into the Philippines bond market.
  • As the FED pivots this week, creating doubt as to the path for interest rates globally, the risk for investors next year is the re-pricing of interest expectations.