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Scotiabank:
- They don't expect the BCRP Board to signal any substantial change in its monetary policy settings in its communications following the June 10 meeting.
- Members appear to be focused on the fact that core inflation remains just below the 2% y/y headline inflation target, which the Board views as a by-product of output gaps that are likely to persist into next year.
- Becoming a bit more sceptical that price pressure will prove quite as transitory as the BCRP currently forecasts: Scotiabank Economics in Peru has raised its end-2021 projection from 2.6% y/y to the top of the target range at 3.0% y/y, and shifted up its end-2022 forecast from 2.3% y/y to 2.6% y/y.
Goldman Sachs:
- In all, core inflation remains well below the demanding 2% target and the clear guidance has been for stable policy rate for an extended period.
- A high number of new Covid cases will continue to impart a negative bias on short-term activity.
- They expect the MPC to keep the rate at 0.25% through at least late 2021, and to start normalizing monetary policy only when the level of activity is on a sustainable recovery path approaching pre-pandemic levels.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.