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Central Bank Preview – January 2023

PERU
  • At 2300GMT/1800ET, the BCRP will announce their latest monetary policy decision. 11 of 12 surveyed analysts on Bloomberg are expecting a 25bp hike, bringing the reference rate to 7.75%.
    • A hike would be the 18th consecutive increase since the bank started tightening policy as the economy rebounded from the pandemic in 2021.
  • Most believe the end of the tightening cycle is close and some analysts have described this meeting as being a close call, with one even forecasting an unchanged decision (see analyst views below).
  • Perhaps tilting the balance in favour of further tightening is the deadly protests in the South of the country, having the potential to further aggravate the already above target inflation.
    • Regarding the data, latest figures showed December Lima CPI rose to 8.46% from 8.45% in November but more significantly, above the median surveyed estimate of 8.30%.
  • Guidance from the central bank committee regarding the timeline for the convergence of inflation to target is expected to remain unchanged at Q4, 2023.
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