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Central Bank Seen Hiking 25BPs On Thursday

PERU
  • The focus in Peru is on tomorrow’s BCRP decision where all surveyed analysts on Bloomberg are expecting another 25bp hike of the reference rate to 7.00%.
  • Despite Lima CPI moderating in August to 8.4% from 8.74%, the September monthly reading of +0.52% was above median consensus, prompting the annual rate to jump once again to 8.53%.
    • August 12-month ahead inflation expectations continued to dip, albeit at a slower pace of just 6 basis points to 5.10%.
  • Activity declined 0.8% M/m in July. Mining and manufacturing were the main drags with construction also contributing. Services partially offset the decline. Activity is close to potential and pension savings withdrawals should provide some support in H2. Additional data released since the September meeting indicated higher a unemployment rate (7.3% from 6.8% in July).
  • The BCRP is widely considered to be entering the late fine-tuning stage of its hiking cycle and analyst views for Thursday’s meeting will be posted throughout today’s session.
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