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Central Government Budget Balance, IPCA-15 Inflation Data Due

BRAZIL
  • The central government’s budget balance is expected to come in at BRL 13.0bn in April, after a BRL 1.5bn deficit in March (1230BST/0730ET). Treasury Secretary Rogerio Ceron will follow with a press conference on the data at 1300BST. Meanwhile, IPCA-15 inflation data for the first half of May will be released at 1300BST, with analysts expecting the headline rate to edge down to 3.74% y/y, from 3.77%.
    • April Central Govt Budget Balance, est. BRL13b, prior -BRL1.5b
    • May IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 YoY, est. 3.74%, prior 3.77%
    • May IBGE Inflation IPCA-15 MoM, est. 0.47%, prior 0.21%
  • BCB President Campos Neto will attend the Comef meeting in Brasilia today. Yesterday, he gave a speech at a lunch event where he highlighted the further increase in inflation expectations in the latest BCB Focus survey, noting that underlying services inflation is far above target and adding that there is less visibility where disinflation is coming from. However, he also said that inflation expectations are seen stabilising.
  • Separately, BCB director of monetary policy Gabriel Galipolo also said that deanchored expectations are the main point of discomfort, but that over time, the BCB will resolve doubts behind this. He added that the balance of risks has not changed and that the job market shows no clear signs of wage pressure.
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