MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, December 12

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CEWC Puts Greater Emphasis On Growth, But Covid Headwinds Persist In The Near Term

CNH

(MNI Australia) USD/CNH sits slightly higher versus closing levels from the end of last week. The pair is back above 6.9830, sitting slightly above the mid-point of recent ranges.

  • The market is likely to be encouraged by the greater focus on growth for next year after the conclusion of the CEWC meeting, particularly domestic demand. The growth target is expected to be set around 5% for 2023.
  • More support is expected for the property sector, although the line around the sector not being for speculation was reiterated.
  • The yuan rate is expected to be kept broadly stable, close to an equilibrium, which is what the authorities typically say on the FX rate.
  • Elsewhere, Shanghai will close most schools from today, amid surging Covid cases. Reported Covid deaths in Beijing is the other focus point. Surging domestic case numbers are likely to be a constraint on near-term economic activity.
  • On the data front, tomorrow we have the 1yr and 5yr LPRs. The consensus looks for no change in either rate, currently at 3.65% for 1yr and 4.30% for the 5yr.
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