Free Trial

CFIB Barometer Keeps To Recessionary Levels

CANADA
  • The CFIB small business barometer increased in August for the first time since March but it’s only limited consolation: the rise from 52.7 to 53.5 leaves it, outside the depths of the pandemic, at lows since early 2016 and before that 2009.
  • Contrary to prior strength in domestic indicators, with monthly real GDP growth running at 5.6% Y/Y in May, these levels of business confidence (if sustained as it can be volatile) would be consistent with closer to zero growth.
  • See chart with 2s10s added to show recent historical inversion compared to prior slowdowns.

CFIB Barometer (white) vs monthly GDP growth (yellow) and GoC 2s10s (green)Source: Bloomberg

To read the full story

Close

Why MNI

MNI is the leading provider

of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.

Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.