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CFTC: JPY Short Covering to Remain Key Market Driver, as Per CFTC Report

CFTC
  • JPY short-covering continued apace, with the net short being trimmed by ~44k contracts, or 14.3% of open interest. Despite the short-covering (likely the extended trigger of the post-intervention JPY rally last week), the outright market is still left short of ~110k contracts. Nonetheless, the pace of short-covering has tilted the 52w Z-Score into positive territory, now at +0.77.
  • Both asset managers and leveraged funds played a significant part in the short-covering, however both investor classes are net short ~50k JPY futures contracts. We wrote last week that the short-covering tailwind is likely to persist given entrenched positioning - these investor classes haven't been net neutral or net long JPY at the same time since the aftermath of COVID lockdowns in 2021.
  • GBP and AUD positioning sees the largest 52w Z-score among currencies surveyed. Markets built net long GBP to a new series high last week, hitting 49.2% of open interest.
  • Full table here:

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