Chad's President Killed By Rebels, Risks Further Sahel Destabilisation

Reports emerging that Chadian President Idriss Deby has died from his injuries after somehow being on the frontline in the fight against anti-gov't rebels.

• Only yesterday, provisional results showed Deby being re-elected as president for a sixth consecutive term with 79% of the vote. He served as president from 1990, making him one of the longest continually-serving national leaders worldwide.
• The unexpected death of such a long-serving leader risks a major political destabilisation in Chad, which is already in the midst of a near-civil war between the army and northern rebels, the Front for Change and Concord in Chad (FACT).
• On 17 April the US State Dep't advised all non-essential US personnel to leave Chad immediately. "Armed non-governmental groups in northern Chad have moved south and appear to be heading toward [the capital] N'Djamena. Due to their growing proximity to N'Djamena, and the possibility for violence in the city, non-essential US government employees have been ordered to leave Chad by commercial airline."
• Chad sits towards the eastern edge of the Sahel bigeographic region in north/central Africa, a region that has experienced significant political instability and terrorist violence in recent years. This violence has drawn in global security actors including France and the United States.
• The one of the major military operations in the region is France's Operation Barkhane, aimed at combating Islamist terrorist groups across Mali, Niger, and Chad.
• The death of Deby in Chad leaves a political vacuum in an already unstable country. Given Chad's large uranium deposits, there will be major Western security interest in making sure a stable transition of power in the country. If there is not, an increased Western security presence may be required to ensure the deposits do not fall into dangerous hands.

Map of Sahel Region and International Forces Present

Source: AFP, MINUSMA, Operation Barkhane, g5sahel.org, MNI