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Chair Powell Asked How The Fed is Measuring Progress

FED

Q: How are you measuring progress? Is inflation data itself a good indicator or are you concerned it's a lagging indicator, or confusing due to supply / demand aspects? Will inflation data tell you when you've gone where you need to go?

  • A: The role we can play is around demand, we can see our effect in real time on job openings etc. There's always a risk of going to far or not going far enough; will be tough but maybe not, maybe it'll be really clear. The worst mistake we could make would be to fail on inflation; if you don't have price stability the economy doesn't work the way it is supposed to.
  • This inflation happened relatively recently, not affecting expectations fundamentally, not seeing a wage-price spiral. It's key that we sustain confidence in the Fed.
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Q: How are you measuring progress? Is inflation data itself a good indicator or are you concerned it's a lagging indicator, or confusing due to supply / demand aspects? Will inflation data tell you when you've gone where you need to go?

  • A: The role we can play is around demand, we can see our effect in real time on job openings etc. There's always a risk of going to far or not going far enough; will be tough but maybe not, maybe it'll be really clear. The worst mistake we could make would be to fail on inflation; if you don't have price stability the economy doesn't work the way it is supposed to.
  • This inflation happened relatively recently, not affecting expectations fundamentally, not seeing a wage-price spiral. It's key that we sustain confidence in the Fed.