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Chair Powell Notes Above-Expectation Economic Activity

FED
  • Powell notes that econ activity has been coming in above expectations with recent consumer spending particularly robust. Housing activity has picked up somewhat; higher rates weighing on housing and business fixed investment.
  • Goes through the SEP growth projections: notes the labor market remains tight with supply and demand conditions coming into better balance, with payroll gains at a strong pace that is nevertheless well below seen earlier in the year. Wage growth shown some signs of easing and job vacancies have declined, but labor demand still exceeds supply. Rebalancing to continue, easing inflation pressures.
  • Inflation remains well above 2%. Has moderated somewhat since middle of last year and L-T expectations remain well anchored. The process of getting inflation sustainably down to 2% has a long way to go - Powell cites the SEP projections for inflation reaching 2% in 2026.
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