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Characteristically Thin On Independence Day, Payrolls In Firm Focus

US TSYS
  • Cash Treasuries are closed across regions today for Independence Day.
  • TYU4 trades in narrow ranges at 109-29+ (-04 from yesterday's early settle) on very low volumes of 135k.
  • It consolidates the bulk of yesterday’s rally that saw a high of 110-04 on a slew of dovish releases including ADP (modest), jobless claims and a sizeable miss for ISM services.
  • Initial firm resistance is at 110-16 (Jun 28 high) but the bear threat is still present with support at 109-02+ (Jul 1 low) just above the key support at 109-00+ (Jun 10 low).
  • Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s drop. Ahead of tomorrow’s payrolls report, markets increasingly look at a September cut with now a cumulative 19.5bp priced and with a total 48bp of cuts for 2024 (vs the single cut for the median FOMC participant).

Source: Bloomberg

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