June 17, 2024 09:45 GMT
Cheap Views in Consumer & Transport
CONSUMER CYCLICALS
- Cheap view bond performances through last week's sell-off below. Note spreads against swaps were more mute for index (our RV views are taken on Z/OAS).
- Decompression was strong in markets and unclear how much of this is on HY bonds that stream on px being left as is. It did hit all three of our HY views in Coty, Finnair & Elo/Auchan.
- Elo, which is French, is of most concern for us given earnings ahead. It was/is a falling knife but came well wide in primary to curve (57bps) & CDS - curve has repriced wider since.
- We are not worried about Coty28s moves.
Indices:
- €IG (+0.6) to +80.4
- £IG (+10) to +147
- €BBB (+2.9) to +109
- €BB (+30) to +189
- €B (+58) to +464
- WBA (£) 25s (+4) at UKT+137
- ISS Global 26s (-3) at Z+59
- IDS 28s (-10) at Z+152
- Pluxee 28s (-7) at Z+79
- Woolworths 28s (+1.5) at Z+88
- Coty 28s (+37) at OAS+118 (eff. duration 1.8Y)
- Finnair 29s (+26) at Z+230
- Elo/Auchan new April 28s (+40) at Z+319
- PVH 29s (-8) at Z+129
- Bary Callebaut 29s (-17) at Z+103
- PostNL 31s (-10), at Z+178
- Tesco 31s (-7), at Z+101
- BAT 32s (-6), at Z+154
- Tesco (£) 34s (+5) at UKT+133
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