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Cheapening Bias Maintained; Labour Market Data Up Next

AUSSIE BONDS

Aussie bonds are off worst levels but have maintained the bulk of the cheapening derived from Tuesday’s U.S. CPI data, having tracked a pullback in U.S. Tsys from session cheaps, unwinding the early Sydney push lower.

  • The repricing of Fed tightening expectations leaked through into AUD OIS, with ~39bp of tightening now priced for the RBA’s Oct meeting and a terminal rate of 3.75% priced (still well shy of the 4.50% that was priced back in June, given expectations for a slowing of the pace of tightening in the coming months).
  • Cash ACGBs run 5.0-13.0bp cheaper across the curve, bear flattening.
  • YM is -12.6 and XM is -9.7. The 3-/10-Year EFP box is flatter, with 3-Year EFP little changed and 10-Year EFP narrower, while Bills run 13 to 20 ticks cheaper through the reds.
  • Thursday will see Australian labour market data and consumer inflation expectations cross.
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