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Cheaper After CPI Data Surprises Slightly On the Upside

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -2.5) have reversed morning strength to be weaker after July’s CPI Monthly surprised slightly on the upside. The headline CPI rose 3.5% y/y (estimate +3.4%) in July versus +3.8% in June. Estimates ranged from +2.7% to +3.9% across 24 economists. Trimmed mean CPI rose 3.8% y/y versus +4.1% in June.

  • (ABS) “Electricity prices fell 5.1 per cent in the 12 months to July, down from a rise of 7.5 per cent in June. The introduction of new Commonwealth and State rebates drove the fall in July."
  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest net movements.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2bps cheaper on the day, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +10bps.
  • Swap rates are 1-4bps higher on the day.
  • The bills strip has turned this morning’s bull-flattener into a bear-steepener, with pricing -2 to -4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-7bps firmer for 2025 meetings after the data. A cumulative 23bps of easing is priced by year-end versus 25bps before the data.
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