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Cheaper As Post-CPI Gains Unwound, TY Breaks Key Support

US TSYS

TYU3 deals at 112-26+, +0-05, in line with late NY levels.

  • Cash tsys finished 4-9bps cheaper across the major benchmarks, the curve bear flattened.
  • Tsys ticked away from post-CPI highs through the NY session as today's FOMC rate decision came into view. Rate cut expectations for 2023 were wound back.
  • CPI was broadly in line with expectations, the headline CPI print was the lowest read since March 2021.
  • TY broke key support at 112-29+, the low from May 26/30, which added further cheapening pressure.
  • The latest 30-Year auction stopped through, strong bid/cover ratio and indirect take-up were observed.
  • FOMC dated OIS price no change for todays meeting with a terminal rate of 5.25% in July. There are ~10bps of cuts in 2023.
  • There is a thin data calendar in Asia-Pac today, further out the latest FOMC rate decision is the highlight. The MNI preview is here.

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