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JGBS: Cheaper, BoJ Ueda Reiterates Hikes Coming, 10Y Supply Tomorrow

JGBS
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JGB futures are holding weaker but off session lows, -16 compared to settlement levels, on the first day of trading since 30 December. 

  • According to MNI’s technicals team, medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda sent a fresh reminder that he’s going to raise the benchmark rate if the economy continues to improve this year.
  • “Our stance is that we will raise the policy interest rate to adjust the degree of monetary easing if economic and price conditions keep improving,” Ueda said. The governor spoke at a conference held by the Japanese Bankers Association. (See BBG link)
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Cash JGBs are 1-3bps cheaper across benchmarks beyond the 1-year (+3.4bps). The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.3bps higher at 1.123% after earlier testing the cycle high of 1.134% set on 30 December 2024.
  • Swap rates are 1-5bps higher, with the 20-30-year zone leading. Swap spreads are mixed.
  • Tomorrow will see Monetary Base data and 10-year supply. 
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JGB futures are holding weaker but off session lows, -16 compared to settlement levels, on the first day of trading since 30 December. 

  • According to MNI’s technicals team, medium-term trend signals on the continuation chart continue to point south. A resumption of the trend would pave the way for a move towards 141.56, a Fibonacci projection point on the continuation chart. A stronger recovery would open 144.48, the Nov 11 high.
  • BoJ Governor Ueda sent a fresh reminder that he’s going to raise the benchmark rate if the economy continues to improve this year.
  • “Our stance is that we will raise the policy interest rate to adjust the degree of monetary easing if economic and price conditions keep improving,” Ueda said. The governor spoke at a conference held by the Japanese Bankers Association. (See BBG link)
  • Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session.
  • Cash JGBs are 1-3bps cheaper across benchmarks beyond the 1-year (+3.4bps). The benchmark 10-year yield is 2.3bps higher at 1.123% after earlier testing the cycle high of 1.134% set on 30 December 2024.
  • Swap rates are 1-5bps higher, with the 20-30-year zone leading. Swap spreads are mixed.
  • Tomorrow will see Monetary Base data and 10-year supply.