MNI China Daily Summary: Tuesday, December 10

MNI BRIEF: China Nov Exports Slows, Imports Slide

MNI BRIEF: China Crude Oil Imports Accelerate In November

MNI BRIEF: Brazil Annual Inflation Rises To 4.87% In November

CHINA NOV EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y VS MEDIAN +8.9% Y/Y: CUSTOMS

MNI: CHINA YTD EXPORTS +6.7% Y/Y IN YUAN TERM: CUSTOMS

US NFIB NOV SMALL BUSINESS INDEX 101.7

MNI: GERMAN NOV CPI +2.2 % Y/Y

MNI: NORWAY NOV CORE CPI +0.1% M/M, +3% Y/Y

MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU-Mercosur Deal Close, But Likely Short-Lived - Officials

AUSTRALIA: 2025 Election Outcome Looking More Uncertain According To Newspoll

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Cheaper But Directionless Dealings

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -1.5) are being held cheaper after another session of directionless dealings. With the domestic calendar light and cash US tsys little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session, the local market has seen narrow ranges.

  • Outside of the previously outlined Judo Bank PMIs, there hasn't been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag.
  • “The Australian economy will expand 1.2% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 2.4% in 2026, according to a survey conducted by Bloomberg News. Chance of a recession happening over the next 12 months is 30 per cent, according to 14 respondents” (See link)
  • Cash ACGBs are 2bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at +11bps.
  • Swap rates are 3bps higher, with EFPs wider.
  • The bill strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -4.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer. Terminal rate expectations sit at 4.43%.
  • ICYMI, the AOFM announced on Friday that a new Dec-35 bond will be issued via syndication this week (subject to market conditions). The issue size is expected to be around $10bn.
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