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Cheaper, Narrow Ranges, Employment Report Tomorrow

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ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -4.0) are holding cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in the Sydney session. There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined Westpac Leading Index.

  • Cash US tsys are dealing little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s cheapening following Fed Chair Powell’s "lack of further progress on inflation" comment.
  • Cash ACGBs are 4bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -29bps.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-6bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 13bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Employment Report for March. There will be a lot of focus and uncertainty around this release after the outsized 116.8k rise in new jobs in February due to the timing of new starts around holidays. There could be payback for the outsized March outcome, which was the highest since the pandemic-affected November 2021.
  • Bloomberg consensus expects a moderate 10k rise with the unemployment rate returning to its November/December level of 3.9%.
  • Tomorrow’s local calendar also sees NAB Business Confidence for Q1.
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ACGBs (YM -4.0 & XM -4.0) are holding cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in the Sydney session. There hasn’t been much in the way of domestic drivers to flag, outside of the previously outlined Westpac Leading Index.

  • Cash US tsys are dealing little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s cheapening following Fed Chair Powell’s "lack of further progress on inflation" comment.
  • Cash ACGBs are 4bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -29bps.
  • Swap rates are 4-5bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -7.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is 3-6bps firmer for 2025 meetings. A cumulative 13bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the Employment Report for March. There will be a lot of focus and uncertainty around this release after the outsized 116.8k rise in new jobs in February due to the timing of new starts around holidays. There could be payback for the outsized March outcome, which was the highest since the pandemic-affected November 2021.
  • Bloomberg consensus expects a moderate 10k rise with the unemployment rate returning to its November/December level of 3.9%.
  • Tomorrow’s local calendar also sees NAB Business Confidence for Q1.