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Cheaper, Narrow Ranges, Empty Calendar, Tracking US Tsys

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -4.0) are holding cheaper as trading remains confined within narrow ranges during today's Sydney session. Given the light local economic calendar until Thursday's release of the March Employment Report, market participants are closely monitoring movements in US tsy yields for guidance.

  • Cash US tsys are dealing ~1bp richer in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s bear-steepening.
  • Fed Chair Powell, Vice Chair Philip Jefferson and Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin are scheduled to speak later today.
  • (Bloomberg) Bearish sentiment and momentum have further to run, with 4.75% for 10-year yields appearing to be a realistic target, according to Westpac. Recent comments from Fed officials in response to the sticky inflation data haven’t pushed back on the market pricing of less than two interest-rate cuts by the year-end.
  • Cash ACGBs are 2-4bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential unchanged at -30bps.
  • Swap rates are 2-3bps higher.
  • The bills strip has bear-steepened, with pricing -1 to -5.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly firmer. A cumulative 19bps of easing is priced by year-end.
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