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Cheaper With U.S Tsys

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs are cheaper (YM -15.0 & XM -15.5) as U.S. Tsy yields push higher with improved risk ahead of the FOMC policy announcement tonight. The U.S. Tsy curve bear flattened with 2-year and 10-year U.S. Tsy yields respectively 20bp and 12bp higher. The rally in ACGBs faded yesterday after the RBA Minutes for March confirmed that the Board was set to evaluate the case for a pause at the April meeting, but failed to provide a fresh impetus.

  • Cash ACGBs open 14-15bp weaker with the 3/10 curve 1bp steeper.
  • Swaps open with rates 13-14bp cheaper and EFPs slightly tighter.
  • Bills strip bear flattens with pricing 7-14bp cheaper.
  • RBA dated OIS open 3-19bp firmer for meetings beyond April with the later meetings leading. April meeting pricing is flat with 27bp of easing priced by year-end.
  • The local calendar is light today with Westpac’s Leading Index for February the highlight.
  • The markets, nonetheless, await the FOMC Policy Decision tomorrow. BBG consensus expects a 25bp hike, although some analysts expect no move. The market is pricing an 82% chance of a 25bp hike up from 70% yesterday.
  • The AOFM is scheduled to sell A$700mn of the 3.0% 21 November 2033 bond.
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