Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
The Chicago Business BarometerTM, produced with MNI, was revised up to 47.2 in December from 46.9, as result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation. Growth in the first half of the year was slightly softer than previously estimated while the second half of the year – Q3 in particular – was stronger than previously estimated.
SOFTER PACE OF CONTRACTION IN Q3
April saw the largest downward revision, with the Barometer revised lower -1.8 points to 46.8 from its initial estimate of 48.6, while October recorded the biggest upward revision of +1.0 point to 45.0.
Although the Barometer remained below 50 most of the year, Q3 showed a softer pace of contraction that extended to Q4, with the Barometer revised up to 45.8 in Q3 (+0.6 points) and to 49.3 in Q4 (+0.4 points).
ORDER BACKLOGS AND EMPLOYMENT REVISED HIGHER; PRICES PAID LOWER
Order Backlogs saw the largest upwards revision (+2.5 points) to 35.6 followed by Employment that was revised higher by +1.1 points in December to 46.2. New Orders were little changed at 44.6 in December. Production also saw a small revision to 58.6 in December (-0.2 points) while Supplier Deliveries was revised lower to 51.3 (-0.8 points).
Prices remained high but expanded at a lower rate by the end of the year, with the Prices Paid Indicator revised lower by +2.0 points to 68.0 in December.
Overall, data from the Chicago survey saw minor revisions. All the series of the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted using the X13 ARIMA SEATS program of the US Census Bureau. The seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.