Chicago Business Barometer™ - December Adjusted Higher

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI, was revised up to 47.2 in December from 46.9, as result of the annual seasonal adjustment recalculation. Growth in the first half of the year was slightly softer than previously estimated while the second half of the year – Q3 in particular – was stronger than previously estimated.

SOFTER PACE OF CONTRACTION IN Q3

April saw the largest downward revision, with the Barometer revised lower -1.8 points to 46.8 from its initial estimate of 48.6, while October recorded the biggest upward revision of +1.0 point to 45.0.

Although the Barometer remained below 50 most of the year, Q3 showed a softer pace of contraction that extended to Q4, with the Barometer revised up to 45.8 in Q3 (+0.6 points) and to 49.3 in Q4 (+0.4 points).

ORDER BACKLOGS AND EMPLOYMENT REVISED HIGHER; PRICES PAID LOWER

Order Backlogs saw the largest upwards revision (+2.5 points) to 35.6 followed by Employment that was revised higher by +1.1 points in December to 46.2. New Orders were little changed at 44.6 in December. Production also saw a small revision to 58.6 in December (-0.2 points) while Supplier Deliveries was revised lower to 51.3 (-0.8 points).

Prices remained high but expanded at a lower rate by the end of the year, with the Prices Paid Indicator revised lower by +2.0 points to 68.0 in December.

Overall, data from the Chicago survey saw minor revisions. All the series of the Chicago Report are seasonally adjusted using the X13 ARIMA SEATS program of the US Census Bureau. The seasonal adjustment factors are recalculated annually every January.