Chicago Business Barometer™ - Edges Up to 46.1 in August

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI progressed 0.8 points to 46.1 in August. The marginal move means it remains in contractionary territory for the ninth consecutive month, although is comfortably above the year-to-date average of 42.9.

• The marginal rise was due to three of the five subcomponents improving. The marginal upward movement was driven by New Orders, followed by Production and Supplier Deliveries. Whilst small reductions in Order Backlogs and Employment capped the upside move.
• In particular, New Orders, rose 2.0 points, making it comfortably above the year-to-date average of 42.0.
• Supplier Deliveries increased for the fourth consecutive month by 2.9 points, making it the highest since October 2022.
• Production grew 1.5 points to 47.9, still significantly below the high of June. The increase was largely due to more respondents reporting unchanged production rather than lower production.
• Meanwhile, Order Backlogs dipped for the second consecutive month by 4.1 points. This makes it the lowest since May 2024.
• Employment was also lower for the second consecutive month, falling 2.4 points to 39.5.
• Prices Paid jumped up by 10.2 points to 66.0, after three consecutive months of decline, taking it above the year-to-date average of 63.4.
• Finally, Inventories grew 3.3 points, producing the second highest reading in 2024.