US DATA
The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI slipped 3.3 points to 36.9 in December. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, with the index at its lowest since May 2024, and below the 2024 average.
- The decline was primarily driven by a fall in New Orders, with Production also lower. Increases in Employment, Supplier Deliveries and Order Backlogs, restricted the downward move.
- New Orders fell 13.5 points to the second lowest level since May 2020. This was due to over half of respondents reporting fewer new orders for the first time since June 2020.
- Production cooled 2.9 points to 34.1. This is the fourth successive monthly fall with the sub-index at its lowest level since January 2009 (with the exception of Apr-May 2020 during the pandemic).
- Employment advanced 11.9 points to 49.4, the highest level since November 2023, and firmly above the 2024 average. This was driven by an increase in firms keeping employment stable and reviewing future staffing levels.
- Supplier Deliveries rebounded 9.7 points, reversing last month’s slide. This leaves the index at its highest since August 2022.
- Order Backlogs rose 2.8 points.
- Prices Paid softened 5.8 points to 60.3, the lowest level since July 2024.
- Inventories edged down 3.0 points. Outside of March 2020 this leaves the index at its lowest level since October 2009.
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