Chicago Business Barometer™ - Softens to 44.0 in February

The Chicago Business Barometer^TM, produced with MNI softened -2.0 points to 44.0 in February. This is the third consecutive monthly decline, pushing the index deeper into contractionary territory, and marking the lowest print since July 2023. We also note that this print is -1.4 points below the 2023 average.

• The move lower was largely driven by falls in Production and Employment, while Supplier Deliveries also moved lower. New Orders, and Order Backlogs rose compared to January, limiting some of the move in the headline index.
• Production fell -5.8 points to 42.9 points, the lowest level since May 2023 and third consecutive month on month fall.
• Employment dropped -6.0 points to 40.7 points, the lowest since July 2023. The smallest proportion of respondents since May 2020 reported that they had increased employment while we also saw the largest proportion of respondents reporting lower levels of employment since July 2023.
• Supplier Deliveries were down -2.6 points, the lowest since October 2023 and taking the subindex back into contractionary territory.
• Order Backlogs picked up +1.1 points, the second consecutive monthly rise.
• New Orders increased slightly by +0.3 points, the highest level since November 2023.
• Inventories rebuilt +6.0 points, however, remain in contraction. The rise was driven by more respondents replenishing inventory levels.
• Prices paid saw a small change of +0.8 points to 64.7.