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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
FED
Not particularly dovish comments from Chicago Fed Pres Goolsbee in a Yahoo Finance interview this morning, but he's probably (still) on the more dovish side of the 3 cut FOMC median - noting that while the Fed needs to see more disinflationary progress before cutting, the "story" doesn't seem to have "fundamentally changed" in recent months despite an apparent stalling of inflation metrics at elevated levels.
- Goolsbee replies to a question about a cut in June: "I don't want to get back into speculating about not just one meeting, but two meetings from now". This is very similar to what he said in February ahead of the March meeting (“I don’t like tying our hands ahead of time when we’ve got weeks and months of data to come in").
- He notes that every meeting is live, with decisions depending on the incoming data - and regarding the March Dot Plot, the 3 rate cut median "was in line with my thinking this time".
- Though we don't know for sure, he probably moved his dot up a notch from 4 cuts in December. There was only 1 dot more dovish than the 3 cut median in the March projections, at 4 cuts.
- Re Fed QT taper policy, Goolsbee more or less defers to Chair Powell's commentary at the March FOMC press conference: says that the Committee wants to pre-announce policy in a regularized way, slowing down runoff to achieve a range of where bank reserves are "ample". Regarding sequencing, Goolsbee emphasizes that rate cuts and QT taper decisions are totally separate.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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