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CHILE: CLP Buoyed By Copper, Government To Lower 2024 GDP Forecast

CHILE
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  • The Chilean peso is benefitting from the more stable risk backdrop on Monday, following the narrowing of the US election odds, as well as a 1.5% bounce in copper prices on the back of further China stimulus hopes. USDCLP has fallen 0.9% to 954, unwinding Friday’s gains.
    • The move lower comes despite weaker-than-expected IMACEC activity data for September, which Finance Minister Marcel described as disappointing. Marcel said that the government will lower its 2.6% GDP growth estimate for the year after Q3 GDP data are published on Nov 18.
    • Analysts note that activity in September was dragged lower by mining, which fell by 2.8%. Non-mining activity dropped by 0.5% m/m. Meanwhile, Itaú notes that investment signals remain weak, which means that the economic recovery this year will have to continue to come from private consumption.
    • For USDCLP, a bull cycle remains in play and last week’s gains confirmed an extension of the current uptrend. The 960.00 handle has been cleared and this exposes 966.61, the Aug 5 high and a key short-term resistance. Initial firm support lies at 943.13 the 20-day EMA.
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  • The Chilean peso is benefitting from the more stable risk backdrop on Monday, following the narrowing of the US election odds, as well as a 1.5% bounce in copper prices on the back of further China stimulus hopes. USDCLP has fallen 0.9% to 954, unwinding Friday’s gains.
    • The move lower comes despite weaker-than-expected IMACEC activity data for September, which Finance Minister Marcel described as disappointing. Marcel said that the government will lower its 2.6% GDP growth estimate for the year after Q3 GDP data are published on Nov 18.
    • Analysts note that activity in September was dragged lower by mining, which fell by 2.8%. Non-mining activity dropped by 0.5% m/m. Meanwhile, Itaú notes that investment signals remain weak, which means that the economic recovery this year will have to continue to come from private consumption.
    • For USDCLP, a bull cycle remains in play and last week’s gains confirmed an extension of the current uptrend. The 960.00 handle has been cleared and this exposes 966.61, the Aug 5 high and a key short-term resistance. Initial firm support lies at 943.13 the 20-day EMA.