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CHILE: Itaú Says Q3 Data Overall Show Improvement, Despite Soft August Activity

CHILE
EM BulletBulletGlobalEmerging Market NewsRegion
  • Following the stronger-than-expected retail sales and IP data yesterday, today’s IMACEC activity figures were surprisingly soft. Seasonally-adjusted activity fell on the month, dragged by weakness in manufacturing and services. Mining activity remained robust, however, rising 8% y/y. The data followed weak credit numbers, which showed that total outstanding real loans fell by 2.0% y/y in August, while business confidence remains at a low level.
  • Itaú notes that activity data have been especially noisy this year, affected by several transitory shocks, but overall the numbers for 3Q24 are showing an improvement. They believe that recently announced stimulus measures in China and a swift easing cycle in the US could consolidate a soft-landing scenario. They expect GDP growth of 2.5% this year and 2.1% for 2025 as prior downside risks to the scenario have faded.
  • USDCLP remains marginally higher on the day around 902, but has not reacted much to the data, as higher copper prices help to anchor the peso. Attention remains on key support at 881.73, the May 20 low, while initial firm resistance is seen at 926.23, the Sep 27 high.
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  • Following the stronger-than-expected retail sales and IP data yesterday, today’s IMACEC activity figures were surprisingly soft. Seasonally-adjusted activity fell on the month, dragged by weakness in manufacturing and services. Mining activity remained robust, however, rising 8% y/y. The data followed weak credit numbers, which showed that total outstanding real loans fell by 2.0% y/y in August, while business confidence remains at a low level.
  • Itaú notes that activity data have been especially noisy this year, affected by several transitory shocks, but overall the numbers for 3Q24 are showing an improvement. They believe that recently announced stimulus measures in China and a swift easing cycle in the US could consolidate a soft-landing scenario. They expect GDP growth of 2.5% this year and 2.1% for 2025 as prior downside risks to the scenario have faded.
  • USDCLP remains marginally higher on the day around 902, but has not reacted much to the data, as higher copper prices help to anchor the peso. Attention remains on key support at 881.73, the May 20 low, while initial firm resistance is seen at 926.23, the Sep 27 high.