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US TSYS: China AI Startup DeepSeek Rattles Broader Markets

US TSYS
USBulletMarketsFixed Income BulletsNorth America
  • Heavy risk-off moves occurred Monday as Chinese AI startup DeepSeek rattled broader markets: new competition for US AI developers weighed heavily on chip stocks, the tech heavy Nasdaq falling over 3.65% in late trade, spurred heavy outright buying and short covering across the board in Treasuries.
  • After the close, the Mar'25 10Y contract trades +22 at 109-05 vs. 109-12 high, just under initial technical resistance at 109-12.5 (50-day EMA), heavy volumes (TYH5 over 2.5M).
  • Despite the rally, curves were mixed by the close, 2s10s -2.053 at 32.906, 5s30s +1.680  at 43.432. Nevertheless, projected rate cuts through mid-2025 regain traction vs. late Friday (*) levels as follows: Jan'25 at -0.7bp (-0.1bp), Mar'25 at -8.3bp (-6.9bp), May'25 at -15.9bp (-13.6bp), Jun'25 at -27.9bp (-24.7bp), Jul'25 at -33.7bp (-28.6bp).
  • Focus remains on Wednesday's FOMC policy annc, no move expected, as well as a heavy slate of corporate earnings Tuesday: PACCAR, Sysco Corp, Synchrony Financial, Lockheed Martin Corp, Veradigm, Royal Caribbean, Polaris Inc., Boeing, NextEra Energy, JetBlue Airways, General Motors, Kimberly-Clark Corp, Invesco, Starbucks, Qorvo and Stryker Corp.
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  • Heavy risk-off moves occurred Monday as Chinese AI startup DeepSeek rattled broader markets: new competition for US AI developers weighed heavily on chip stocks, the tech heavy Nasdaq falling over 3.65% in late trade, spurred heavy outright buying and short covering across the board in Treasuries.
  • After the close, the Mar'25 10Y contract trades +22 at 109-05 vs. 109-12 high, just under initial technical resistance at 109-12.5 (50-day EMA), heavy volumes (TYH5 over 2.5M).
  • Despite the rally, curves were mixed by the close, 2s10s -2.053 at 32.906, 5s30s +1.680  at 43.432. Nevertheless, projected rate cuts through mid-2025 regain traction vs. late Friday (*) levels as follows: Jan'25 at -0.7bp (-0.1bp), Mar'25 at -8.3bp (-6.9bp), May'25 at -15.9bp (-13.6bp), Jun'25 at -27.9bp (-24.7bp), Jul'25 at -33.7bp (-28.6bp).
  • Focus remains on Wednesday's FOMC policy annc, no move expected, as well as a heavy slate of corporate earnings Tuesday: PACCAR, Sysco Corp, Synchrony Financial, Lockheed Martin Corp, Veradigm, Royal Caribbean, Polaris Inc., Boeing, NextEra Energy, JetBlue Airways, General Motors, Kimberly-Clark Corp, Invesco, Starbucks, Qorvo and Stryker Corp.