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China Crude Imports Forecast at 10.76mn bpd October: LSEG

OIL

China overview: oil imports and oil product exports based on official customs and LSEG forecast data:

  • China crude oil imports were 11.13 mn bpd in September, down from 12.4 mn bpd in August. (August was the third strongest month on record)
  • September’s crude import pace was 14% higher y/y and 14.6% higher over the first 9 months of this year versus last.
  • China exports of refined fuels slipped slightly in September m/m, with product shipments of 5.44 million metric tons or 1.45 million bpd.
  • China fuel exports are expected to remain strong October because of recent export quotas and firm profit margins – especially for diesel.
  • China crude imports are forecast to drop to around 10.76mn bpd in October according to LSEG.
  • Domestic demand was forecast to dip after the Golden Week holiday at the start of the month.
  • China traffic congestion has increased post Golden Week while flight miles have pulled back from a short-lived swell for the celebration. Flight miles for the holiday failed to breach peak summer demand – (see chart)



source: Airportia

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