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China Daily Oil Summary: Demand Growth to Slow in 2024

OIL

China’s oil demand growth is forecast to slow 3.3% in 2024 to growth of about 500kb/d according to China International Capital Corp via Bloomberg.

  • The forecast which correlates with GDP growth of 5%, is expected to be driven by international flight recovery, policy support for infrastructure projects, petchem capacity expansion, and feedstock demand.
  • Strong travel in China over the Lunar New Year holiday has driven an increase in demand supporting crude purchases by refiners ahead of expected maintenance during Q2.
  • China’s refined oil exports are planned at 4.2 million tonnes in March – up 16% m/m according to OilChem. Exports include: 0.73 million tonnes gasoline, +7.35% m/m, 1.26 million tonnes gasoil, +38.46% m/m.
  • China’s CDU utilisation rates are expected to remain flat in the week to Feb. 29, amid stable supply of feedstocks, according to OilChem.
  • Capacity utilisation rates at domestic refineries averaged 71.8% in the week to Feb. 22, down 0.19 percentage points.
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