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China Gasoline Demand to Peak in 2023: OilChem

OIL PRODUCTS

Gasoline demand in China looks set to peak in 2023 as electric vehicles become more popular and given the rapid elimination of commercial cars and increase in fuel efficiency according to OilChem.

  • Gasoline demand in 4Q is expected to be up +21% y/y but down -1.1% q/q and -5.8% in 2023 vs 2021.
  • Diesel demand in Q4 is forecast at +1.5% y/y, +3.3% q/q; -5.5% in 2023 vs 2021.
  • New-energy vehicles (NEVs) displaced about 1.5m tons of gasoline consumption in August. The government targets NEV overall car ratio to rise to 80% for bus, taxi, postal delivery and logistics distributions in some cities by 2025.
  • Q4 gasoline exports are forecast at 2.9m tons and diesel exports at 3.8m tons with the monthly average flat to previous months.
  • Refiners tentatively plan to export 1.03m tons gasoline and 1.24m tons diesel in Oct, flat m/m
  • LSFO quota of 800k tons was reallocated to fuel exports with a low likelihood of another round of allocations.
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