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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CHINA DATA
A reminder we have China May trade figures out tomorrow. The market looks for a noticeable slowing in export growth. The consensus looks for a -1.8% y/y outcome, versus 8.5% prior, (note the range on forecasts -11.1% to 7.0% y/y so quite wide). Base effects from last year are clearly playing a role (export growth rebounded to 16.4% in May last year from 3.5% in Apr).
- Some slowing would also be consistent with the softer backdrop presented by export orders from the official manufacturing PMI print.
- The chart below overlays the y/y change in this sub index against y/y export growth. China export growth has outperformed since the start of the year relative to other export orientated economies in NEA.
- On the import side, the market forecast is for little change in y/y momentum. The consensus sits at -8.0% y/y, versus -7.9% prior, (note the range of forecast estimates is -15.0% to -4%). The market will be watching commodity import trends closely, and broader growth momentum to gauge the domestic demand backdrop.
- The trade surplus is expected to remain healthy, projected at $95.45bn, versus $90.21bn in April.
Fig 1: China Export Growth & PMI Manufacturing Export Orders (Y/Y)
Source: MNI - Market News/Exports
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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