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China Oil Demand Growth to Slow to 500kb/d in 2024: CICC

OIL

China’s oil demand growth is forecast to slow 3.3% in 2024 to growth of about 500kb/d according to China International Capital Corp via Bloomberg.

  • The forecast which correlates with GDP growth of 5%, is expected to be driven by international flight recovery, policy support for infrastructure projects, petchem capacity expansion, and feedstock demand.
  • Growth potential is seen for jet fuel, bitumen and naphtha but gasoline and diesel face headwinds from higher new-energy-vehicle penetration.
  • Apparent oil demand increased 14% to 14.97mb/d in 2023 with 46% of the growth driven by a recovery in diesel, gasoline and jet fuel to pre-Covid levels.

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