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China Oil Demand Growth to Slow to 500kbpd in 2024: Bloomberg Survey

OIL

Oil demand growth in China is expected to slow to 500kbpd in 2024 according to the median of 12 industry consultants and analyst estimates surveyed by Bloomberg.

  • Growth is estimated less than a third of the 2023 rate with a fading impact of a post pandemic recovery in travel and consumption. China accounted for 75% of the increase in global demand in 2023 according to the IEA.
  • Naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel are the main drivers of growth as gasoline is expected to become less significant due to electric-vehicle growth.
  • “Next year, growth will be returning to the normal trajectory with pandemic factors fading. The outlook isn’t so encouraging,” said Ke Xiaoming at Sinopec.
  • China’s demand will return to 2019 levels with strong jet fuel demand but a sluggish economy will weigh on gasoline and diesel according to Li Ran at CNPC.
  • “2024 can be seen as the starting point for a structural slowdown in China’s demand, with the biggest components, such as gasoline and diesel, losing momentum,” said Mia Geng at FGE.

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