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Free AccessChina Oil Demand Growth to Slow to 500kbpd in 2024: Bloomberg Survey
Oil demand growth in China is expected to slow to 500kbpd in 2024 according to the median of 12 industry consultants and analyst estimates surveyed by Bloomberg.
- Growth is estimated less than a third of the 2023 rate with a fading impact of a post pandemic recovery in travel and consumption. China accounted for 75% of the increase in global demand in 2023 according to the IEA.
- Naphtha, LPG, and jet fuel are the main drivers of growth as gasoline is expected to become less significant due to electric-vehicle growth.
- “Next year, growth will be returning to the normal trajectory with pandemic factors fading. The outlook isn’t so encouraging,” said Ke Xiaoming at Sinopec.
- China’s demand will return to 2019 levels with strong jet fuel demand but a sluggish economy will weigh on gasoline and diesel according to Li Ran at CNPC.
- “2024 can be seen as the starting point for a structural slowdown in China’s demand, with the biggest components, such as gasoline and diesel, losing momentum,” said Mia Geng at FGE.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.