China Oil Product Exports Expected to Rise January m/m

China’s refined fuel exports will likely rise by at least 10% in January m/m to between 3.5 million and 3.6 million metric tons according to consultancies and trade sources contacted by Reuters.

• The increase follows China’s announcement of the first 2024 batch of 19 million metric tons of export quotas – flat y/y.
• January diesel exports out of China are expected to reach about 975,000 tons, according to an average of estimates from FGE, Longzhong and Wood Mackenzie - up from 450,000 tons last month.
• Chinese refiners' export margins swung between $2/bbl and a slight discount over the last month according to a Reuters source.
• A number of the Reuters sources expect January refined product export strength to extend into February on weaker domestic demand.
• Jet fuel exports are expected to hit roughly 1.63 million tons, the highest in more than a year, according to the median of estimates from Longzhong and Wood Mackenzie.
• Gasoline exports are likely to be flat at 800,000 - 1 million tons this month after refining margins turned negative, according to estimates from traders and Longzhong.