China Return Catalyses Price Action

Participants in China and South Korea returned to the fray today, returns mixed as markets play catch up.

• CNH: Offshore yuan is stronger, CNH rose following a stronger than expected fix from the PBOC, but gave some of the move higher after the NDRC announcement of the indefinite halt of all activities under the China-Australia economic dialogue.
• SGD: Singapore dollar is weaker, data late yesterday showed retail sales rose 6.2% Y/Y in March, below estimates at 7.1%. Elsewhere as coronavirus infections rise, Singapore is limiting events and quarantining travelers
• TWD: Taiwan dollar is weaker, data yesterday showed Taiwan's foreign reserves rose to $541.11bn, up from $539.04bn in March. The central bank has been warned off intervention by the US Treasury who claim TWD could be up to 21% undervalued. USD/TWD declined around 2.2% during April and closed below 28.00 for the first time since 1997.
• KRW: Won is weaker after a market holiday yesterday, minutes of the BoK's April meeting were released late on Tuesday (followed by a market closure on Wednesday), the minutes showed members expect export and investments likely to continue to improve, while consumption and employment are expected to gradually recovery.
• MYR: Ringgit is weaker, Defence Min Ismail Sabri announced that Kuala Lumpur will be placed under MCO from May 7 through May 20, noting that MCO will also be imposed in several areas in Perak, Johor and Terengganu. The newly implemented MCOs will cover next week's Hari Raya celebrations. Industrial production rose 9.3% Y/Y, above estimates of 8.7%.
• IDR: Rupiah is stronger, Indonesian Economic Min Hartarto said Wednesday that the gov't expects domestic economy to rise 6.9-7.8% Y/Y, which would be the fastest pace of growth since 2008. Hartarto noted that "the trend of economic recovery is toward positive growth" and "the curve is V-shaped."
• PHP: Peso has risen, Philippine unemployment rate eased further to 7.1% in March from 8.8% recorded in February, while underemployment slipped to 16.2% from 18.2% over the same period. Participation rate climbed to 65.0% from 63.5%.
• THB: Baht is lower, the BoT unanimously decided to leave the main policy rate unchanged at the historical low of 0.50%, looking through multiplying coronavirus cases and resultant restrictions. However, they recognised fresh risks to the current growth outlook and said GDP may rise just 1-2% Y/Y (depending on when Thailand achieves herd immunity, which will affect reopening tourism) rather than 3% projected earlier.