China's 2024 Spot LNG Demand Uncertain Despite Consumption Recovery

A recovery in China’s gas consumption is expected in 2024 but demand for spot LNG continues to be very uncertain according to Energy Intelligence.

• State-run gas majors suggest spot LNG will be crowded out by alternative supplies. “Supply is rigidly increasing. With domestic gas production, imported pipeline gas and long-term LNG imports increments totaling over 20 billion cubic meters, it leaves very limited space for spot LNG imports,” a PetroChina LNG trader says.
• However, the current bearish global LNG price environment, under $10/mmbtu, will provide strong competitiveness to support opportunistic spot purchases this year, said second-tier LNG importers Beijing Gas and China Gas.
• CNPC’s Economics and Technology Research Institute expect China’s natural gas imports to rise 8.2% y/y to 179.1bcm in 2024 driven by both piped and LNG imports. Long-term LNG deals of 11.46m tons expected to start this year could crowd out spot LNG while domestic gas production will also rise 4.5% to 145.8bcm.
• Demand is estimated to grow around 6% y/y according to CNPC and CNOOC. China’s gas consumption growth however remains uncertain with risks if prices rise as gas power competes with coal and hydropower in summer.