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China Weekly Oil Summary: No Further Clean Product Export Quotas

OIL

The Chinese government will not issue new quotas for clean oil product exports or additional crude imports this year according to three Platts sources September 27.

  • China's average clean oil product exports will be in a downtrend as only about 11.81m mt (770k b/d) of clean product export quotas will be available for September through the rest of 2023 according to Platts.
  • Gasoline demand in China looks set to peak in 2023 as electric vehicles become more popular and given the rapid elimination of commercial cars and increase in fuel efficiency according to OilChem.
  • Planned refined oil exports from China in September currently stand at 3.96m mt, according to an OilChem survey, with some state-owned refinery ramping up the export plans on lucrative export profits and adequate quotas.
  • Chinese travel is set for another demand boost as the Golden Week holiday is set to arrive at the end of the week spanning September 29 - October 6.
  • More than 21 million people are expected to take flights in the space of eight days, with air passenger carriers in China increasing capacity by 784,000 seats this week, according to OAG.
  • China’s economy showed signs of a stronger recovery in September, according to several early indicators and a firm analysing the global economy using satellite data.
  • China’s Q3 GDP growth is estimated to reach above 4.6%, slower than Q2’s 6.3%, as the higher comparison base for the same period last year kicks in, Securities Times reported citing the average forecast by eight economists. The economy will likely further recover in Q4 as consumption growth accelerates amid the Golden Week holiday and two major online shopping festivals.
  • Headlines surrounding this month’s Politburo meeting have started to cross. Note that there aren’t any expectations for meaningful policy easing announcements or the like at the event. The meeting was held Sep. 27, with the Politburo noting that it will deploy strong measures to prevent and resolve major risks.
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