China’s Crude Throughput to Decline in December

China's crude throughput is set to continue the downtrend in December both from state-run and independent refineries due to weak domestic demand and a decline in oil product exports according to S&P Commodity Insights.

• China’s crude throughput in November is also expected lower from 15.12mbpd in October and a record high of 15.54mbpd in September, data from China's National Bureau of Statistics showed.
• "Oil product stocks have been piling up as winter is a slow season for oil consumption, which will continue to weigh on the throughputs next month," an analyst told S&P.
• China’s total export quotas for clean oil products could decline to 5.65mn tons, or 736kbpd, in November and December, around 20% below the average exports of 921kbpd during Jan-Oct, S&P estimates showed, which is likely to cap exports.
• In November, the average utilization rate of the 50 state-owned refining plants covered by S&P Global fell to a five-month low of 81.3%, partly due to maintenance. These refineries aimed to process 8.67mbpd of crude in the month, compared to their combined primary capacity of 10.66mbpd.
• Run rates were also lower on the year from 82.7% in November 2022.
• The small-sized independent refineries in eastern Shandong province also reduced their average utilization to about 65.2% in November from 69.7% in October, JLC data showed These refineries have been grappling with weak refining margins and are short of crude import quotas.
• China’s official PMIs for November were weaker than expected. The manufacturing coming in at 49.4 vs 49.8 forecast and 49.5 prior. The services side eased to 50.2 vs 50.9 forecast and 50.6 prior.