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China’s Gas Power Capacity and Softer Prices to Boost 2024 Demand

NATURAL GAS

China’s natural gas power capacity is set to expand in 2024 and softer gas prices this year will accelerate gas consumption growth in the sector according to BNEF.

  • Gas power plants are likely to be profitable in 2024 based on the Asia spot LNG futures curve and assuming the latest annual power contract price for Guangdong province. Forward prices suggest costs are below a profitability threshold of $12/mmbtu until November in the province.
  • Power sector gas consumption in China may grow 7.1% this summer compared with last year to 35.4bcm. China could add more than 25GW of gas power capacity in 2024 mostly in Guangdong and Sichuan provinces.
  • Power plant gas burn still hinges on the availability of other electricity sources such as hydro power, while extreme weather such as floods adds uncertainty.


Source: BNEF

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