MNI China Daily Summary: Thursday, December 19

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OIL: China's Oil Demand to Peak Around 800m tons by 2027: Sinopec

OIL
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China's petroleum consumption is expected to peak at around 800m tons a year by 2027, from 750m tons in 2024, as diesel and gasoline demand weakens, according to Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute said.

  • China’s gasoline demand peaked last year and fell 1.1% to 177m tons in 2024. The demand decline is estimated to accelerate to 2.4% in 2025 as the shift to electric vehicles gathers pace.
  • “Petrochemical-driven demand will cushion declines from road fuels,” said Luo Daqing. “Refiners will have to shift focus to lifting chemical yields. We see the growth of oil-powered cars stalling after 2025.”
  • Diesel demand will decline 5.4% to 184m tons in 2024 and by 5.5% in 2025.
  • Aviation fuel consumption will rise 13.6% y/y to 39.4m tons in 2024, 7% y/y in 2025 and would keep rising through 2040.
  • Refining capacity expansion is approaching an end, and will peak at 960-970m tons by 2025
  • Donald Trump's second term adds market uncertainty amid potential changes to U.S. sanctions on Iran.
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China's petroleum consumption is expected to peak at around 800m tons a year by 2027, from 750m tons in 2024, as diesel and gasoline demand weakens, according to Sinopec Economics & Development Research Institute said.

  • China’s gasoline demand peaked last year and fell 1.1% to 177m tons in 2024. The demand decline is estimated to accelerate to 2.4% in 2025 as the shift to electric vehicles gathers pace.
  • “Petrochemical-driven demand will cushion declines from road fuels,” said Luo Daqing. “Refiners will have to shift focus to lifting chemical yields. We see the growth of oil-powered cars stalling after 2025.”
  • Diesel demand will decline 5.4% to 184m tons in 2024 and by 5.5% in 2025.
  • Aviation fuel consumption will rise 13.6% y/y to 39.4m tons in 2024, 7% y/y in 2025 and would keep rising through 2040.
  • Refining capacity expansion is approaching an end, and will peak at 960-970m tons by 2025
  • Donald Trump's second term adds market uncertainty amid potential changes to U.S. sanctions on Iran.