Chinese LNG Import Growth to Slow: BNEF

China’s imports of LNG are expected to slow in the winter season, replaced instead by cheaper forms of gas, according to BNEF.

• LNG imports are forecast to rise by 12% on the year in the 6 months to March 24, reaching 37.7m mt. Imports during the previous winter were hampered by a covid-led slump in demand.
• However, imports for winter 23/24 are likely to be lower than levels seen in the winter 21/22.
• Current estimates for winter 24/25 imports also show only marginal growth rates at 38.1m mt.
• A possible upside in LNG demand could come through cuts in pipeline gas flows from Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, although consumption may also be dampened by the El Nino weather system.
• Possible strikes in Australia could also cut LNG supply to China by between 0.4-1.6m mt if full shutdowns were to take place and last from 2 weeks to 2 months.