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Chinese Refiners Set for Higher Sanctioned Barrel Availability

OIL

China will be the main beneficiary of a recent push in US sanctions against both Iran and Venezuela, which should support deeper oil discounts according to Kpler.

  • An influx in heavy and medium sour crude grades into China are expected to exert downward pressure on differentials for these grades.
  • Venezuelan barrels are expected to move away from US and India and towards China now that the sanctions reprieve was not extended April 18. India has been pulling in about 130kbd and the US about 174kbd of Venezuelan oil that could be directed to China.
  • Rising prices on Iranian grades into China in recent months are expected to see greatest impact as availability of other grades causes pressure.
  • Large uptick in Russian oil exports in March to Asia expected to prompt additional medium-sour volumes from the Middle East for export to China and increase competition.
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