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Resistance Remains Intact

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Chipping Away At 2023 Rate Expectations

  • Fed Funds implied hikes see a similar pattern to yesterday’s cooling, little changed at upcoming meetings and slightly lower further out.
  • 77.5bp for Nov 2 (unch), 137bp to 4.45% for Dec (unch), terminal 4.92% May’23 (-1bp) and 4.54% Dec’23 (-2bp).
  • No lasting impact from the Australia CPI beat overnight and firming of a 25bp hike, but potential spillover from the BoC at 1000ET with consensus leaning to a 75bp hike and roughly 70bps priced.

FOMC-dated Fed Funds futures implied hike (top panel) and rates (bottom panel)Source: Bloomberg

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