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Chipping Away At Friday's PMI Rally

US TSYS
  • Treasuries have cheapened some more with the US in, despite a most recent dip in S&P e-minis, although the moves remain restrained compared to the recession fear-led rallies late last week aside from at the very long end where the 30Y has largely clawed back Friday’s gains.
  • 2YY with +4.5bps at 3.015% are sticking to circa 3% for now, having been 3.27% prior to the ECB 50bp hike and Philly Fed miss on Thu before the subsequent slumps in the EA and US PMIs on Fri further set the tone.
  • Misses in the German Ifo early on or the Chicago Fed index just now haven’t had a notable impcat, with modestly larger rises in 10YY on the day only seeing a 3bp steepening in 2s10s to still sit at circa -20bps.
  • A heavy earnings week, kickstarting in earnest tomorrow, could help shape sentiment prior to the FOMC on Wed. In the interim though, TYU2 pulls back further into Friday’s range at 119-20, down 8+ ticks on the day having earlier eyed support at 120-11 (Fri high) with a bull trigger shortly above it at 120-16+ (Jul 6 high)
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  • Treasuries have cheapened some more with the US in, despite a most recent dip in S&P e-minis, although the moves remain restrained compared to the recession fear-led rallies late last week aside from at the very long end where the 30Y has largely clawed back Friday’s gains.
  • 2YY with +4.5bps at 3.015% are sticking to circa 3% for now, having been 3.27% prior to the ECB 50bp hike and Philly Fed miss on Thu before the subsequent slumps in the EA and US PMIs on Fri further set the tone.
  • Misses in the German Ifo early on or the Chicago Fed index just now haven’t had a notable impcat, with modestly larger rises in 10YY on the day only seeing a 3bp steepening in 2s10s to still sit at circa -20bps.
  • A heavy earnings week, kickstarting in earnest tomorrow, could help shape sentiment prior to the FOMC on Wed. In the interim though, TYU2 pulls back further into Friday’s range at 119-20, down 8+ ticks on the day having earlier eyed support at 120-11 (Fri high) with a bull trigger shortly above it at 120-16+ (Jul 6 high)