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Choppy Day, NFP Up-Revs, Stimulus Chatter Buoy Risk Sentiment

US TSYS SUMMARY

Another day in the rearview after the midweek political mayhem that surrounded the DC siege, market attention turned to more prosaic matters of employment figures, economic outlooks and a debate over additional stimulus.

  • Alright, there was a persistent droning debate over removing Trump from office by impeachment, the 25th amendment or by resignation through the day -- but focus was more on the much weaker than expected Dec NFP -140k vs +50k est.
  • Rates gapped bid but just as quickly reversed/extended lows as focus on large upward revisions to Oct (+645k) and Nov (+336K) kicked off much better selling pressure w/over 90,000 TYH1 from 136-25 to -22. More chop on Dec headline miss, dampening prospect of carry-over surge in early 2021 was dampened by Fed VC Clarida expecting "brighter economic outlook" later in yr and beyond.
  • Heavy volumes, rates clawed off midday lows as equities reversed/traded weaker as D-WV Manchin expressed opposition to $2k stimulus. Late headlines that Pres elect Biden will sketch out another economic relief package next wk helped stocks recover late.
  • The 2-Yr yield is unchanged at 0.1369%, 5-Yr is up 2.7bps at 0.4865%, 10-Yr is up 3.9bps at 1.1187%, and 30-Yr is up 2.3bps at 1.8761%.

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